July 31, 2024
UC Merced Political Science Assistant Professor Andrew Shaver was cited in The Economist along with colleague Alexander Bollfrass for their 2023 paper published in International Organisation, referencing that high temperatures were correlated with violence in both Afghanistan and Iraq. When days went from 16°C highs to more than 38°C, they observed, “The predicted probability of an Iraqi male expressing support for violence against multinational forces [as measured in opinion polls] increased by tens of percentage points.”
Read The Economist article, "How America built an AI tool to predict Taliban attacks", HERE.
Read Dr. Shaver's research paper, "Disorganized Political Violence: A Demonstration Case of Temperature and Insurgency", HERE.
