Congratulations to UC Merced Political Science Assistant Professor Anil Menon and coauthor BaoBao Zhang on their new article "Future Shock or Future Shrug? Public Responses to Varied Artificial Intelligence Development Timelines" in The Journal of Politics.
Abstract: The increased pace of generative artificial intelligence (AI) development has prompted many experts to predict widespread workplace automation in the near future. We examine how messaging about different AI development timelines affects the public’s views about workplace automation and policies to mitigate technological unemployment. Our survey experiment (N=2,440 U.S. adults) randomly assigned participants to a control group or one of three treatments, each presenting a different timeline for job loss due to “transformative AI” (2026, 2030, or 2060). Generally, shorter timelines did not increase concerns about job loss or support for universal basic income, limiting automation, or funding job retraining. The informational treatments, when pooled, increased concerns regarding technological unemployment but did not impact policy preferences. Our null results speak to a larger literature, which finds that making individuals feel more proximate to risks does not necessarily increase support for policies aimed at mitigating these risks.
Read the Article HERE.
